As AI continues to advance, I find myself pondering the future career landscape for my 6-year-old daughter. AI Moore Law and My Daughter Future? What will be left for her when advancements in artificial intelligence are significantly impacting professions once considered secure, shaping future career opportunities.
As of today, i have read a lot of articles where specialists are stating that AI will in profession such as doctors, lawyers, surgeons, asset managers, simply help humans but that humans will still be needed for complex decision-making, empathy, and ethical judgment.
I would love to believe them because that would mean that 20 years down the road my daughter could still be a doctor, a surgeon, a lawyer, a notary etc… But i think that all those experts are just burying their head into the sand. Do not hesitate to contact me at connect@swissfintechpro.com if you have opinion on this matter.
Moore’s Law, introduced by Gordon Moore in 1965, states that the number of transistors on microchips doubles approximately every two years. This law has driven advancements in computing, making devices faster, smaller, and more efficient. Initially predicting 65,000 transistors per chip by 1975, the progress has been exponential, with chip makers placing 50 billion transistors on a chip by 2024
Adapting Moore’s Law to the progression of AI would suggest a similar exponential growth in artificial intelligence capabilities. Let’s call it “AI Moore’s Law.” This conceptual framework proposes that the capabilities and performance of AI systems could double approximately every two years, akin to the increase in the number of transistors on microchips as described by the original Moore’s Law.
Performance Enhancement: Just as with computing hardware, AI’s ability to process and analyze data would grow exponentially. This would include faster learning rates, more complex problem-solving abilities, and more sophisticated decision-making.
Efficiency Improvements: AI systems would become more efficient in using computational resources, reducing the energy and time required for training and inference phases.
Proliferation in Applications: As AI capabilities expand, their application across different industries—such as healthcare for predictive diagnostics, autonomous vehicles for improved navigation and safety, and finance for real-time, complex decision-making—would become more feasible and widespread.
AI Accessibility: As the underlying technologies improve and become cheaper, AI tools and systems could become more accessible to a broader range of users and developers, potentially democratizing AI benefits.
The rapid advancement in AI capabilities could also necessitate accelerated development of ethical guidelines and regulations to manage potential social impacts, such as displacement of jobs and decision-making in critical areas like law enforcement and healthcare.
Applying the concept of an “AI Moore’s Law” to specific professions like surgeons, doctors, lawyers, asset managers, and IT specialists suggests a substantial transformation in these fields, driven by exponential improvements in AI capabilities over the next 20 years. Here’s how AI could impact each of these roles:
Surgeons and Doctors:
As AI systems become more adept at diagnosing and treating diseases with high precision, the role of human surgeons and doctors might shift from performing routine surgeries and diagnostics to managing more complex and rare conditions that require nuanced human judgment. In routine cases, it’s conceivable that AI could handle most tasks autonomously, reducing the need for direct human intervention. Fact is that Google just made a study where AI doctor are better than human doctor on 24 out of 26 criteria, including empathy and bedsides manner. Fact is that AI is already better at reading scan or x-rays than human doctors.
AI’s ability to process vast amounts of legal data could automate many aspects of legal work, such as drafting documents, legal research, and even some types of litigation support. For standard cases, AI might operate independently, though human oversight might still be needed for complex negotiations, high-stakes litigation, and areas requiring deep ethical considerations. But there would be far less jobs opening.
AI could take over many aspects of asset management, including algorithmic trading, portfolio management, and risk assessment. These systems can analyse market data more quickly and comprehensively than humans, potentially making autonomous AI-driven asset management the norm. Human roles might evolve towards client relationship management and strategic decision-making based on AI-generated insights. Fact is that the French newspaper Figaro evaluated human asset managers vs AI asset managers and that AI asset managers provided the better return over investment.
With the rapid advancement of AI, routine IT tasks such as data management, system maintenance, and even coding could be automated. The role of IT professionals might shift towards more complex areas such as cybersecurity, the development of new AI systems, and the integration of AI into existing technological frameworks. Fact is that i who have not a clue about coding used ChatGPT coding function to modify the coding of my blog.
For pilots, applying the concept of an “AI Moore’s Law” can have profound implications.
Autonomous Flight: Advances in AI could lead to more sophisticated autonomous flight systems capable of managing all aspects of flying, including take-off, navigation, and landing. This technology is already in development, with drones and other unmanned vehicles showcasing the potential for fully automated flights.
Reduced Human Intervention: With continuous improvements in AI, the need for pilots in the cockpit could diminish. Autonomous systems might manage routine flights and even complex scenarios, such as emergency procedures, with better precision and faster response times than human pilots.
Role Transformation: The role of human pilots could transition from direct control of aircraft to supervisory and oversight roles. Pilots might monitor autonomous systems and intervene only, when necessary, like how drone operators work today. This shift could also see pilots focusing more on decision-making and management during irregular operations or in conditions where human judgment becomes critical.
By the time my daughter graduates the chance is that she will have a job under AI supervision. Take the example of medical profession. In an AI-enhanced healthcare environment, AI doctors may manage initial diagnostics and routine check-ups, while human nurses assist by providing patient care.
As a human nurse, my daughter will work under the supervision of AI doctors and surgeons, executing treatment plans formulated by AI, until of course AI-powered robots become so nimble and efficient that her assistance is no longer needed.
Remember, “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?” by Philip K. Dick (1968) – a novel, which was adapted into the film “Blade Runner” (1982), and explores a future where androids are so sophisticated that they are indistinguishable from humans. The story delves into the implications of AI that can replicate human emotions and behaviors.
This is no longer science fiction anymore, the question being if the future for my daughter is to be “Blade Runner” or “I, Robots” or “The Matrix” or “Westworld “or something better if it is not yet too late?
Do not hesitate to contact me at connect@swissfintechpro.com with your comments
